With college sports sitting on the cusp of complete change here is my view as to what is going to go down when everything is set and done. The death certificate for the Big 12 is being drawn as we speak, all that remains is for the plug to be pulled. In the end though there will be no winners, only identity and tradition lost.
– Pac-10 soon to be the Pac 16. With Colorado already in the fold and Texas prepared to join them the dominos are most likely to fall on the left coast first this time around. The problem with Texas is Texas A&M, they are a package deal and depending on how hard the Aggie people force the issue it could be a deal breaker because their fan base pales in comparison to the Horns. But in the end some sort of deal will be worked out, Texas is the alpha dog and if they want to go, they will go. I have a feeling that this will also apply to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, or if it doesn’t, by the end it will. And in both cases if the Pac 10 doesn’t take them as a package deal, the SEC will. But if the particulars can be worked out then look for a Grapes of Wrath type western migration. Texas Tech has also been talked about, but they will be riding the other Texas schools coattails. Something tells me Utah could end up a player in this, they are a closer geographic fit, and I think they have the quality of program to be able to compete. But as for schools like Baylor and Kansas-KSU, they will be left on the outside looking in.
– Big 10…I mean 11 I mean 12..I mean. Can the conference which started this hulabaloo land the big catch, Notre Dame. Nebraska is a done deal, so at the very worst the Big 10 has the numbers needed for a conference championship game. But Jim Delaney and company have much bigger dreams. If the Irish come to the fold, then look for a raid on the Big East with Pitt, Uconn and Rutgers being natural targets, but with the ‘Cuse perhaps getting a look as well.
– SEC: Like a poker player waiting for the other players to tip their hand before going all in the ACC’s cousin waits, and plots. Clemson is an obvious target. They have always been SEC wannabe’s anyway. Ga. Tech would go back in a heartbeat, because like the scorpion who stings the frog after he carries it over the river, it is their nature. Of course before Ga. Tech bails, they better remember what the ACC did for them, which is take them in like a stray dog. If not for the ACC Tech is MIT south. As for the other Tech, they would be a natural fit as well, and I for one could not blame them because more than any other program in America VPI is a social climber. FSU has obvious appeal but how much appeal they will have in the post Bowden era remains to be seen. The ‘Noles have ruffled a lot of feathers over the years and there are teams waiting in the wings to give FSU their comeuppance, so perhaps a new neighborhood might be in order. But in the end the SEC might not get what they bargained for, I for one see a long hard road in the near future for FSU.Miami is considered a candidate, but I cannot see them as anything but a tag along partner to FSU. Carolina and Duke also could well be in the mix if for no other reason then their national following in basketball. But they would also be the two toughest to snag. Carolina has issues with State being a part of any move they would make, if the legislature got involved with making State and UNC start playing ECU again it is safe to say they would be quite involved here as well. Though if push comes to shove and it is in UNC’s best interest to move then UNC will fight that fight, too many plans, especially in football are in place for this program to allow itself to be minimalized by going down to a lower profile conference. As for Duke, I honestly think they would drop from the BCS if left with a no other choice then the SEC. Duke football depsite the strides Cutcliffe is making still has 2nd class status and in basketball to use the words of Pete Gillam, Duke is Duke, a change of neighborhood would not change that anytime soon.
– Big East: This will be the conference cherry picked from first, Big East football truly has no tradition therefore it will be easier for their teams to jump ship. All the big players will end up somewhere else. Look for the Big 10 and ACC to snap up the lot, though if West Virginia was smart they would find out if the SEC has any interest, I for one think they would make a nice fit. In the end the Big East will return to what it was meant to be, a basketball conference.
– ACC: Saving the best, or depending on one’s viewpoint the worst, for last, if the conferecne is proactive look for a preemptive raid upon the Big East snapping up perhaps Rutgers, Syracuse Pitt and MAYBE West Virginia. I have also seen South Florida bantered about. For all those hoping the ACC could land Notre Dame, keep dreaming. If John Swofford and company are reactive then the ACC could well be the biggest loser in this battle. Caolina, Duke, both Tech’s, Clemson, FSU and Miami are all potential targets, meaning either no ACC or an ACC in name only with schools like ECU and Central Florida being added to a conference that will be a shell of it’s former self. As for those who would be left behind, especially for Wake, it could be a death knell, especially if Carolina finds cause to leave. But then again, UNC might just be the savior if things turn nasty, the ‘Heels, like Reggie Jackson, are the straw that stirs the drink. If Carolina goes, then everyone will be left scattered to the wind, Carolina stays, then the ACC survives, even if ransacked by other conferences.