Guilford County Schools Enrollments as of September 22, day 20 of the new school year and these are the exact numbers that would be used, as the high school teams are seeded for the playoffs, in early November and these are also the numbers that will be used for future realignment considerations and that subject is coming up very soon…..This shows you where the schools and teams stand and they obviously play under their current NCHSAA banner and they will be divided and seeded based on these enrollments and on the average daily attendance…..But these are your enrollments….
Northwest Guilford-1,925
Page-1,860
Grimsley-1,739
Southwest Guilford-1,431
Dudley-1,409
High Point Central-1,408
Southeast Guilford-1,374
Ragsdale-1,347
Northern Guilford-1,311
Western Guilford-1,286
Eastern Guilford-1,224
Smith-1,221
Southern Guilford-1,134
Northeast Guilford-1,110
High Point Andrews-813
*****Numbers taken from the Guilford County Schools web site which is open to the public….*****
Andy,
What is the current cutoff for 4A, 3A, 2A? Do you think NCHSA will ever got to 5A for the 2000+ enrollment schools?
There is no true number that determines the cut off it all depends on how the numbers for each school look each year.
Page always sits close to the cut off between A and AA (come playoff time). Last year, Page’s numbers were pretty high compared to what they usually are but if 1860 holds true for the official ADMs then Page will be sitting right on the line again.
I would think the ADM’s or the average daily memberships/enrollments would not differ much at all from the numbers posted above….That can’t take a nine-week ADM because the playoffs will start before the first nine weeks ends….
Unless there is a major flu outbreak or an entire class of students stays home from a given school those above numbers should bear out since those are exact numbers from September 22, Day 20 of the new school year…..There were other numbers given, but they were all higher numbers, since they were just projetions…..
Hard to tell yet where the cutoff will be, since some of the cut off numbers will be based on how many teams you need to fill out your East and West sides……
But, I would dare to say that Northwest and Page will be 4-AA, their numbers are not that far off from each other…..Dudley, Southeast, Ragsdale, High Ponit Central and Western Guilford all 4-A…..Northern and Eastern Guilford 3-AA…..Southern and Northeast Guilford 3-A….High Point Andrews 2-AA…..
You could well see a cutoff at 1,500 or 1,450 for the break between 4-AA and 4-A with anything below 1,500 or 1450 going 4-A…..The cutoff line between 3-AA and 3-A could well be 1,200 with anything below 1,200 going 3-A and then for the 2-A cutoff, that would be wild guess time there….Have to know more about the other schools in the state…..High Point Andrews could still be 2-A and not 2-AA, but I would doubt it…
If you are schools like Page, NWG(4-AA), and Northern Guilford(3-AA) you have to be preparing as if you will be playing up……
The trouble with going to 5A conferences is schools would have to travel so far (except Charlotte) to play conference games. Why not just have more but smaller schools. That way more kids could get in the game. If for example, you had 2 QB’s at a mega school that had near equal talent, then one would not get to play much. If they had 2 schools instead, each school would have have 1 of the QB’s playing all the time.
Can you get numbers for Winston-Salem/Forsyth schools, i.e. East and West Forsyth, Glenn, etc.? Thanks
Here’s the whole state
1A https://www.nchsaa.org/intranet/downloadManagerControl.php?mode=getFile&elementID=5962&type=5&atomID=7913
2A https://www.nchsaa.org/intranet/downloadManagerControl.php?mode=getFile&elementID=5962&type=5&atomID=7914
3A https://www.nchsaa.org/intranet/downloadManagerControl.php?mode=getFile&elementID=5962&type=5&atomID=7915
4A http://www.nchsaa.org/intranet/downloadManagerControl.php?mode=getFile&elementID=5962&type=5&atomID=7916
Actually the cutoff last year was around 1850 for 4AA, Andy. Page will be tiptoeing the line and could go either way. It all depends on how many teams larger then them make the playoffs. Also, it could come down to whether or not some of the schools close to the cutoff line last year got larger or smaller.
Last year Scotland County had close to 1870 kids and was 4AA, but was right on the line.
Can you get the numbers for all of the adjoining counties to Guilford? This could be interesting when realignment occurs.
How often does the state re-do the conference realignments? Northerm has 4A enrollment but they continue to play 3A competition. Northern is domatinating other schools in sports such as basketball, and football. I think I have seen some Guilford Co middle schools with more competition than some of the schools in some of these 2A and 3A schools from surrounding small counties such as Caswell. With Northern’s enrollment, school financial support and resources available, they clearly need to join a 4A conference next year.
There are 3 optionss for realignment:
Under Option A, the ADM would be: 2A (683-1010 with 98 schools), 3A (1011-1413 with 98 schools) and 4A (1415-2751 with 98 schools).
Under Option B, the ADM would be: 2A (730-1037 with 93 schools), 3A (1041-1422 with 93 schools) and 4A (1423-2751 with 93 schools).
Under Option C, the ADM would be 2A (707-1019 with 96 schools), 3A (1021-1415 with 96 schools) and 4A (1416-2751 with 96 schools).
A list of all schools, divided into 4 equal groups is due out by 11/15 at the earliest.
The first draft of the realigned schools and conferences is due out at the end of November.
After a round of appeals, a second draft will be out by 2/15/12.
Conferences will be finalized by 3/15/12.
’13-’17 Realignment Plan will be finalized in May, 2012, and will take effect in August 2013.
Our next step will be our visit with Dr. Drew Pasteur…..He will begin putting up preliminary numbers soon and we will have those for you…..His numbers will be on projected playoff matchups…….
We could see some major changes when realignment hits…….They do the realignment every four years and it is due to come at the end of this year and would not take effect until fall of 2013, if my sources are correct and they should be, they are Guilford County Schools employees and I know they are on the money, it is just up to me to make sure I remember correctly, everything they are telling me…..But you have to admit, these are some very interesting numbers……
Also this mornng…….
Page at Wake Forest for the 4-AA’s/4-A in the finals, would be a real good thing…… NWG looks primed to be a playoff contender…..Northern is still in the hunt in a big way, but the team they traveled and faced last year, Wilson Hunt, they are still unbeaten too, at (7-0 or 6-0)……Ragsdale could make a move as a 4-A team and who knows, maybe Dudley has a real strong run left in them and Northeast as a 3-A will be tough…….Northern if they win out and take the Mid State 3-A Conference unbeaten, and with a win over Western Alamance in the last game of the regular season at home, that should give Northern a very long and you would think strong run at home in the playoffs…..
Andy you are correct according to the nchsaa:
REALIGNMENT TIMELINE
2013-2017
? May 2011 – Board of Directors appoint: Overall chair, East Chair, West Chair,
Superintendents (8), & additional members (8, plus DPI, NCCA, NCADA, NCSBA).
? September 2011 – Confirm members of Realignment Committee
? October 15, 2011 – Deadline for schools to submit Declaration of Intent form and what
other schools may be part of their realignment number (Early Colleges, etc.)
? October 19, 2011–orientation meeting for new Realignment Committee
? October 24, 2011 – SDPI furnishes first month ADM of each member school
? After November 15, 2011 – schools will be divided into classes
? By end of November – preliminary plan put together and distributed to membership
? January 2012 – Member school required to attend regional meeting (East or West)
o West meeting is scheduled for Maiden High School on January 23
o East meeting is scheduled for Murphy Center at East Carolina University in
Greenville on January 24
o Meetings will start at 10 am
? February 15, 2012 – Committee meets to review alternative proposals from membership.
2nd draft is distributed to schools
? March 1, 2012 – Deadline for schools to respond in writing to second draft
? March 15, 2012 – Committee meets to finalize conferences
? April 1, 2012 – Deadline for procedural appeals; must be received in writing in NCHSAA
offices by this date
? May 2012 – NCHSAA Board consider appeals. Finalize alignment
? August 2013 – new alignment begins
NOTE: the Realignment Committee reserves the right to adjust the timeline above
if necessary.
Andy.. Sadly.. Drew Pasteur decided last year that he wasn’t returning his NC edition of his site. With him living in Ohio and the arrival of his newborn child he decided to focus on other things. The only thing that will be remotely close to his playoff bracket projections will be TDM’s on Carolinapreps.com
You are exactly right Joe….I went by Drew’s site this morning to see if he had anything cooking and he is now focusing on Ohio…..He did send us along to the CarolinaGridiron Site and they have picked up Drew’s old poll with the FAIR formula and are running with it…..Not sure if they will do Playoff Precictions or not, but they do have the weekly poll…..
Playoff time will be fun and if you look at the Charlotte-area teams alone, they do have a load with Mallard Creek, Butler, Indepedence, Ardrey Kell, I think it is Olymic this year and down the road from there you have RIchmond County……Page could still be the overall #1 seed if they and Mallard Creek, Mount Tabor and others were to be unbeaten at the end of the year…..The Pirates might take the top spot on the draw……It could go many different ways, you just have to stay unbeaten through the 10 regular season gams if you are Page…….Dudley and Southeast Guilford could present a challenge, but Page will be favored, no matter what……..
The ADM’s might get boosted some by the students that would be set to go to their host school, but are in Weaver and the Early colleges…..Page might get a boost here and even NWG or more of the local schools……Your numbers could go up a bit, when you factor in the numbers you would have if those students were in your building and not at the Weaver Center and the Early Collleges…..