In this Rockingham County Preview edition, we look ahead to Rockingham County at Morehead and Bartlett Yancey at McMichael as they compete tomorrow night in the second-to-last Friday night of the regular season as Reidsville will enjoy a bye week. We will also look at the current RPI and the playoff implications that these games will have.
For the weekly reminder, the top 48 teams in each classification advance to the playoffs and those top 48 teams are determined by RPI. The formula for RPI is (0.4 times win percentage) plus (0.4 times opponents’ win percentage) plus (0.2 times opponents’ opponents’ win percentage). Those 48 teams are lined up by latitude and divided into groups of 24, East and West, to make the playoff seeds. In the Rockingham County Preview, we assume that the RPI projections provided by the NCHSAA are correct, but they are not completely accurate and they are updated frequently throughout the week. The best way to look at the RPI rankings is that this is the general area that the team sits in, not their guaranteed 3A, 4A, or 5A standing.
Following a 60-0 loss to Walkertown, the 2-6 McMichael Fighting Phoenix will try to end this five game skid when they take on the similarly struggling Bartlett Yancey Buccaneers. BY is in a bad spot as a 1-7 team who has not won since the very first game of the season, despite coming close in week two when they squandered a lead to American Leadership Academy Johnston and fell in triple overtime.
McMichael is in a precarious position when it comes to the playoffs. They are currently ranked 43rd according to NCHSAA’s RPI, and a loss here would negatively impact the win percentage part of the RPI, especially considering that their final game is against Reidsville. Simply playing BY is going to drop their OWP substantially, but the Reidsville game would likely balance out whatever damage that did. With a few hungry teams behind them, McMichael cannot afford any bad luck in these last days before November if they want to be a part of the 3A playoffs.
Morehead, another 2-6 team that is 43rd in their RPI, may have the same record and ranking as McMichael, but they seem to be in a much different spot. They have two conference wins, and they have won both of those games within the last month. The middle of the season went infinitely better than the start. Coming off of a bye week, they will try to make that final push when they take on Rockingham County, a team they have not beaten since 2022.
Morehead dropped all the way from 38th to 43rd in the RPI despite not playing on October 17th, so they cannot rest assured that they are locked into a playoff spot yet. When you look at the specifics of their RPI slot, Morehead is in a spot where a win is necessary. If they can win this, they would likely rise to the thirties, and if they can get back into the mid-to-late 30s range, it would be unfeasible to drop ten slots in the RPI in the final week, especially since they are playing a likely 7-1 Walkertown. If Morehead wins this game, they have both won their highest number of games since 2022 and unofficially punched their ticket to November football.
The Reidsville Rams received a much-deserved bye week after demolishing the Mid-State Conference. Their conference win streak has extended to 74 games. If Reidsville defeats McMichael in the final week, then there will be freshmen on the team next year who were not alive when Reidsville last lost a conference game. Reidsville’s lowest-scoring conference game was when they scored 42 on Rockingham County, only two opponents scored any points in their conference matchups, and they are winning these games by an average of 41.
Reidsville did fall to number two in the RPI to Brevard, who is the only team they are competing with for the number one overall spot. However, since Brevard is undoubtedly going to be placed on the West side of the bracket, and it appears that most of the top 48 are going to be west of the ‘Ville and that Reidsville will end up as the number one team on the East. While the McMichael game will damage their OWP on the RPI, they have built up such a massive cushion with their schedule’s strength that they can afford that.
Rockingham County’s tides turned after missing the two point conversion in overtime against Asheboro on September 12th. They defeated McMichael, had their game canceled against Walkertown, lost to Reidsville (but so did everyone else in the Mid-State), took down Bartlett Yancey, and beat Carver. With a 4-4 record and this being their final game, they are in position to guarantee a winning record, a third win over Morehead in a row, and a top three finish in the Mid-State Conference. With a lot on the line, they will head eleven miles up the road to Eden to battle the Panthers.
Another thing on the line for Rockingham County is a potential home game in the playoffs for the first time in several years. They are currently ranked 26th in the 5A RPI, and this is their final chance to improve their positioning. Since their bye week is their final week, the sweet spot for RCHS is getting the highest seed possible that does not slot them as a top eight team in either the East or the West. A double-bye would be too much rest for the Cougars going into a do-or-die playoff game. Ultimately, though, Rockingham County has almost certainly secured a playoff spot and they are playing for seeding against Morehead this week.
The following are the conference standings. Reidsville has already clinched a share of the Mid-State and they are a win against McMichael away from a guaranteed, undisputed conference title yet again. Also included is the position each team is in RPI-wise, and to reiterate, the RPI provided by NCHSAA is often inaccurate so this should be seen as an estimate rather than an official spot.
1. Reidsville — 5-0 conference | 7-2 overall, 2nd in the 4A
2. Rockingham County — 3-1 conference | 4-4 overall, 26th in the 5A
3. Walkertown — 2-1 conference | 6-1 overall, 14th in the 3A
T4. Carver — 2-2 conference | 6-2 overall, 19th in the 3A
T4. Morehead — 2-2 conference | 2-6 overall, 43rd in the 4A
T6. Bartlett Yaneey — 0-4 conference | 1-7 overall, 50th in the 3A
T6. McMichael — 0-4 conference | 2-6 overall, 43rd in the 3A
Around the rest of the Mid-State, Walkertown and Carver will compete in a Forsyth County Mid-State game. Walkertown is currently ranked 14th in the 3A RPI and Carver is 19th in the 4A RPI, so both teams are in a spot where they are scratching and clawing toward a potential bye into round two. Walkertown also has a potential top three finish in the Mid-State on the line.
Tomorrow night, we will be looking at the results of each of these games, and exactly one week from today, we will be looking at the potential playoff scenarios for the final time. The leaves have fallen, November is getting closer, and the end of the football season is drawing nigh for some of these teams.