It’s the last week before the postseason begins for the NCHSAA, with Reidsville fighting for a one seed, Rockingham County hoping for a home playoff game, and both Morehead and McMichael sitting on the bubble but currently in playoff position. In this edition, we look at their final games that are coming up tomorrow evening and the playoff implications of this final week.
For the last reminder this season, the RPI is calculated by 0.4 times win percentage plus 0.4 times opponents’ win percentage plus 0.2 times opponents’ opponents’ win percentage. The top 48 teams in each classifications (3A, 4A, 5A…) earn a spot in the playoffs. They are then lined up by latitude, divided down the middle into East and West groups of 24, and re-seeded. Unfortunately, there are errors in the RPI calculations provided on NCHSAA’s website resulting in some teams being undervalued and some being overvalued. Therefore, the RPI rankings provided should be seen as the general area that a team sits in, not a specific spot. When the RPI is finalized on Sunday, November 2nd, it will be accurate, but for now, these are estimates.
The McMichael Fighting Phoenix will wrap up their season by taking on the Reidsville Rams. They are 2-7 overall, 0-5 in the conference, and almost fifty days removed from a win. However, they are still ranked 45th in the 3A after their 48-16 loss to now 2-7 Bartlett Yancey. That’s not fantastic, but it is not as bad as it could be. It is hard to tell how the Reidsville game will affect their RPI, but it will definitely shoot their opponents’ win percentage up a couple of points, and a loss would only drop their win percentage by about two percent. There are many moving parts though, and you have to factor in the eight games their opponents will play, the seventy-plus games their opponents’ opponents will play, and the games that the teams behind them and ahead will play. Therefore, 45th is a worry some position, but more than likely McMichael will hear their names called when the final bracket is released this Sunday.
The Morehead Panthers achieved back-to-back wins over BY and McMichael, but since then, the schedule has gotten difficult. They lost to Reidsville 55-0, took a bye week, lost to Rockingham County 44-12, and they now face a 7-1 Walkertown team that has won by an average of four touchdowns per game. The 2-7 Panthers are in a similar situation as the Phoenix except for being the 44th-ranked team in the 4A. They are 2-7 overall with a much better OWP and OOWP, though, and they have a fair cushion between themselves and the first team out. Again, there are a lot of moving pieces, so it is impossible to know for sure, but Morehead has a better than a coin flip chance of making the postseason.
The Reidsville Rams are well on their way to a bye through the first round and straight to the round of thirty-two, coming immediately after a bye week last week. Sandwiched between these off-weeks is their final game of the season, which comes against their cross-county rival, McMichael. As the second-placed team in the RPI for the 4A behind Brevard, they have a slight chance of moving up, but 7-2 Pisgah would have to end the undefeated run of Brevard for that to take place. However, since Brevard is on the West and Reidsville would likely be on the East, the Football Capital of NC would probably host the first few rounds no matter what. They do not seem in danger of falling below number two.
Rockingham County is in an odd spot. They are 5-4, securing a winning regular season, and the final week is their bye week. So, as a number 27 team in the 5A, they will have to sit back and watch the action unfold. Thankfully for the Cougars, they have secured a playoff spot, and it would take a lot for them to drop outside of the top 32. Now, since the two teams are divided into East and West, making the top 32 does not guarantee a home game in the playoffs, it is the number to shoot for. The Cougars are very likely going to end up with a home playoff game for the first time in years, and will be playing in Wentworth in November.
Around the rest of the Mid-State Conference, Bartlett Yancey, ranked 44th in the 3A, will play against Carver, who is ranked 23rd in the 4A. BY is returning from a big win over McMichael while Carver is coming back from a thirty-point shutout to Walkertown. Walkertown has climbed all the way up to ninth in the 3A with only one loss on their schedule.
Here are the conference standings and the RPI rankings for each team. Reidsville has clinched the Mid-State Conference Title because it is based on win percentage, and even if they lose and Walkertown wins, their win percentage would be higher than one-loss Rockingham County and Walkertown. There is no conference championship game. And while conference standings do not affect the playoffs, it is still worthwhile to see where each team is.
1. Reidsville — 5-0 conference, 7-2 overall | 2nd in the 4A
2. Rockingham County — 4-1 conference, 5-4 overall | 27th in the 5A
3. Walkertown — 3-1 conference, 7-1 overall | 9th in the 3A
T4. Carver — 2-3 conference, 6-3 overall | 23rd in the 3A
T4. Morehead — 2-3 conference, 2-7 overall | 44th in the 4A
6. Bartlett Yancey — 1-5 conference, 2-7 overall | 44th in the 3A
7. McMichael — 0-6 conference, 2-7 overall | 45th in the 3A
Reidsville–McMichael, Morehead–Walkertown, and Carver–Bartlett Yancey will participate in this first last week for the Mid-State 3A/4A/5A. Every team in the Mid-State is currently in the playoffs, but we will not know if these teams will make it until this Sunday. For now, we will look forward to tomorrow when we will finally see how the regular season ends for each of these teams. The Rockingham County Review edition will come out tomorrow night, a Rockingham County Playoff Standings edition will be released on Sunday, and a Rockingham County Preview edition for the playoffs will come out one week from today.