This information is looking ahead to the end of the regular season, using playoff projections to determine what it will take for teams to get an at-large playoff berth in each class. The numbers below are based on the results of 5,000 simulations of the remainder of the regular season, each followed by applying the NCHSAA playoff qualification procedures.
Below are the probabilities of a team getting an at-large berth, if they end the regular season with the stated number of wins and conference wins. The number of wins is based on a ten-game schedule; teams that play eleven games drop one game. This “dropped” game is normally a loss, but teams who win all their non-conference games and play eleven games must drop a non-conference win.
4A/4AA Playoff Bubble
5 wins, 3+ conference wins – Guaranteed a playoff berth
5 wins, 2 conference wins – 97%
5 wins, 1 conference win – 77%
5 wins, 0 conference wins – 59%
4 wins and a tie – 53%
4 wins, 4 conference wins – 49%
4 wins, 3 conference wins – 21%
4 wins, 2 conference wins – 3%
4 wins, 1 conference win – 1%
3 wins – No chance for an at-large berth
3A/3AA Playoff Bubble
5 wins, 3+ conference wins – Guaranteed a playoff berth
5 wins, 2 conference wins – 99%
5 wins, 1 conference win – 89%
5 wins, 0 conference wins – 88%
4 wins, 4 conference wins – 86%
4 wins, 3 conference wins – 58%
4 wins, 2 conference wins – 10%
4 wins, 1 conference win – 1%
3 wins – No chance for an at-large berth
2A/2AA Playoff Bubble
4 wins, 4 conference wins – Guaranteed a playoff berth
4 wins, 3 conference wins – 99%
4 wins, 2 conference wins – 96%
4 wins, 1 conference win – 62%
4 wins, no conference wins – 39%
3 wins, 3 conference wins – 23%
3 wins, 2 conference wins – 3%
3 wins, 0-1 conference wins – No chance for an at-large berth
1A/1AA Playoff Bubble
(Note: the 1A procedure is different than that used in for 2A, 3A, and 4A.)
3 wins – Guaranteed a playoff berth
2 wins – 99%
1 win – 21%
No wins – No chance for a berth
**From Drew Pasteur’s NC Fantastic 50**