Bill Hass on Baseball:Anatomy of the Chris Paddack trade

Anatomy of the Chris Paddack trade
from Bill Hass with Bill on Baseball(Greensboro Grasshoppers) at www.gsohoppers.com

On Thursday I clicked on a story about the Marlins acquiring relief pitcher Fernando Rodney from the San Diego Padres.

I was curious to see who was the player they gave up to get him. Maybe someone from Double-A Jacksonville, or even from high-A Jupiter, which is the norm in exchange for a 39-year-old reliever with an inconsistent career.

When I read that the player was Chris Paddack, I blinked.

The 20-year-old right-hander who had quickly become a star for the Hoppers and currently has a streak of 15 consecutive hitless innings?

The same.

What in the name of Cy Young is going on?

So I began to examine the deal, trying to find the angle from both sides. From San Diego’s perspective, it was a no-brainer. The Padres aren’t going anywhere this season, so Rodney was the perfect piece to trade, most likely to a contender. They wanted a prospect and boy, did they get one.

Paddack was supposed to head north from spring training with the Hoppers but was held back because of some arm soreness. He didn’t pitch for the Hoppers until May 25, when he threw four innings against Delmarva and allowed one run on two hits while striking out nine. That got everyone’s attention.

He followed with five shutout innings on three hits against Lexington and 4 1/3 innings with two runs on four hits and four strikeouts against Hickory. Then came back-to-back performances against Rome totaling 10 innings with no hits, no walks and 19 strikeouts. In his last start he fired five more hitless innings against Hickory with nine strikeouts.

Total in six games: 2-0 record, 0.95 ERA, 28 1/3 innings, nine hits, three earned runs, two walks and 48 strikeouts.

He was the best prospect I’ve seen come through here since Jose Fernandez in 2012. Big (6-4, 200 pounds with room to grow), poised, easy delivery, good fastball, outstanding changeup and a developing curve that he used effectively in his last start.

Manager Kevin Randel and pitching coach Brendan Sagara raved about Paddack’s attitude, competitive nature, work ethic and ability to absorb things like a sponge.

“He’s a legit power starting pitching option,” Padres GM A.J. Preller told MLB.com. “When you look at starting pitchers … you look at guys that have multiple weapons, guys that are tough, competitive. You want to acquire as many starting pitching options as you can, and this guy checks a lot of those boxes.”

So, with all that going for him, why would the Marlins trade away one of their top prospects, further depleting a farm system that is ranked among the worst in baseball?

Not an easy question to answer. Basically, it comes down to their desire to make a run this season for one of the two wild-card National League playoff berths. At 41-37 entering Friday’s game, they were in the mix with the Dodgers, Cardinals and Mets for one of those spots.

The season is almost at the halfway point and an under-achieving team like the Pirates (38-41) has plenty of time to get hot and make the task even harder.

But the Marlins have floundered the past few seasons and now that they figure they might have a shot at the playoffs, they’ve actively doing something — although, curiously, it’s to strengthen an already solid area.

“We have a very strong bullpen to begin with,” assistant GM Mike Berger told the Miami Herald. “Now its one man stronger.”

Rodney is having a splendid season with a bad team — 17 saves with a 0.31 ERA. The Marlins already have a closer, ex-Hopper A.J. Ramos, who is perfect in 24 opportunities this season. Moving Ramos out of that role could be devastating to his confidence, so the prevailing opinion is that Rodney will be used primarily as the 8th-inning setup man, with David Phelps and Kyle Barraclough available for the 6th and 7th innings.

Rodney has served in that role before. It would give the Marlins a formidable back end of the bullpen, if it works. When he’s on, Rodney has been an outstanding closer, with two years of 48 saves and two more of 37 saves. In 2012 he compiled an ERA of 0.60 with Tampa Bay.

But since 2007 he has also posted seven seasons of ERAs of 4.24 or higher. With Seattle last year it was 5.68 and he was released by the Mariners after the season.

It’s a gamble by the Marlins. It won’t cost them much money — they have a $2 million option on his contract for 2017. But what will it cost them down the road?

Most reports of the trade called Paddack a “promising young pitcher” who might be “a few years away.” And he lasted until the eighth round in the 2015 draft, probably because he was a bit older than most high school players (19 1/2 when he graduated).

My eye for evaluating baseball talent isn’t close to what professional scouts and coaches see. I know that what looks good at low Class A doesn’t always translate to higher levels. But there’s no arguing with the results Paddack has postd so far. And he should keep getting better.

I wouldn’t have made this deal, but I admit part of that is based on my disappointment that he won’t continue the rest of this season in a Hoppers uniform. As Randel said after Paddack’s last start here, “it’s fun to watch him every fifth day.”

Now he’ll be doing that with the Fort Wayne Tincaps, San Diego’s team in the low A Midwest League. Paddack was scheduled to start for the Hoppers in Friday’s game at Lakewood. I presume he’ll start in the next day or two for the Tincaps and see how far he can extend his streak of hitless innings.

It won’t be easy. Imagine that you’re 20 years old, the Marlins have invested $400,000 in signing you, you’re giving them lights-out results, and suddenly you’re called into the manager’s office and told you’re now with the San Diego Padres and here’s a ticket to Fort Wayne.

But from what I’ve seen of Chris Paddack, he should adjust and be fine. And in two years, maybe three, he just might be making the Marlins regret their decision.