Mac Jones 25 Yard Pass To DeVante Parker is Most Improbable of Season (7% Probability) + Top 10
The Sport’s Daily have sourced data from Next Gen to compile a list of of the top 10 most improbable completions of the 2022 NFL season.
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10. Gardner Minshew 23-Yard Pass To DeVonta Smith (12.9% Probability)
With 5:04 left in the fourth quarter, Philadelphia had the ball at their own 25-yard line with the game tied 34-34. Gardner Minshew was in shotgun and he dropped back to pass, passing the ball near the sideline for DeVonta Smith. Smith jumped up and caught the pass along the sideline and got two feet in for the 23-yard completion.
Unfortunately for the Eagles, they ended up losing the game 40-34.
Minshew’s 23-yard completion to Smith ranked 10th with a completion probability of 12.9%.
9. Lamar Jackson 16-Yard TD Pass To Mark Andrews (12.7% Probability)
The ball was on the New England 16-yard line, Lamar Jackson was lined up in the shotgun, he dropped back and threw the ball to Mark Andrews, with a defender right in his face, Andrews caught the ball over the defender, was able to get two feet in for the 16-yard TD reception.
This gave Baltimore a 14-10 lead and they would go on and win the game 37-26.
Jackson’s 16-yard TD completion to Andrews ranked ninth with a completion probability of 12.7%.
8. Derek Carr 34-Yard Pass To Darren Waller (12% Probability)
The ball was on the Raiders’ 44-yard line, Derek Carr was lined up in the shotgun, he dropped back to pass and threw the ball to Darren Waller, Waller had to twist his body with two defenders on him in order to catch the ball, and he was able to reel it in for a 34-yard completion.
The Raiders would go on to lose the game 13-10.
Carr’s 34-yard completion to Waller ranked eighth with a completion probability of 12%.
7. Phillip/PJ Walker 62-Yard TD Pass To D.J. Moore (11.5% Probability)
Carolina had the ball at their own 38-yard line, Phillip Walker was lined up in the shotgun, he dropped back and rolled to his left, he threw a deep ball to DJ Moore, who was covered by two defenders, but Moore was able to get the slightest separation and was able to haul in the 62-yard pass for a TD to tie the game 34-34.
Carolina missed the extra point and ended up losing 37-34 in overtime.
Walker’s 62-yard TD completion to Moore ranked seventh with a completion probability of 11.5%.
6. Jacoby Brissett 27-Yard Pass To Donovan Peoples-Jones (12.9% Probability)
Cleveland had the ball on Buffalo’s 34-yard line, Jacoby Brissett was in the shotgun, he dropped back to pass, and threw a deep pass along the sideline for Donovan Peoples-Jones, who had a man all over him but was able to make the catch and get two feet down inbounds for a 27-yard completion.
Cleveland would end up losing the game 31-23.
Brissett’s 27-yard completion to Peoples-Jones ranked sixth with a completion probability of 12.9%.
5. Trevor Lawrence 10-Yard Pass TD To Marvin Jones (8.2% Probability)
Trevor Lawrence was lined up in the shotgun with the ball on Baltimore’s 10-yard line, he dropped back to pass, and threw it along the sideline in the endzone to Marvin Jones, who had a defender all over him, but was able to reel in the catch with two feet inbounds in the endzone to score a TD.
Jacksonville won the game 28-27 after an excellent play from Lawrence and Jones.
Lawrence’s 10-yard TD completion to Jones ranked fifth with a completion probability of 8.2%.
4. Cooper Rush 27-Yard Pass To Michael Gallup (8.2% Probability)
Cooper Rush was in the shotgun, he dropped back to pass, and threw a deep 27-yard pass along the sideline to Michael Gallup, who was pinned between a defender and the sideline, but was able to bring in the catch with two feet inbounds for the 27-yard completion.
Dallas would go on to win the game 22-10.
Rush’s 27-yard completion to Gallup ranked fourth with a completion probability of 8.2%.
3. Jalen Hurts 45-Yard Pass To DeVonta Smith (8.1% Probability)
Jalen Hurts lined up in the shotgun, dropped back to pass, launched it 45 yards to DeVonta Smith along the sideline, and with a tiny bit of separation along the sideline, Smith was able to haul in the pass with two feet in for the 45-yard completion.
Philadelphia would win the game 24-8.
Hurts’ 45-yard completion to Smith ranked third with a completion probability of 8.1%.
2. Dak Prescott 27-Yard Pass To CeeDee Lamb (7.4% Probability)
Dak Prescott was lined up in the shotgun with the ball on Dallas’ 30-yard line, he dropped back to pass, rolled to his right, threw the ball while on the run along the sideline to CeeDee Lamb, and Lamb was able to bring in the pass with two feet inbounds and possession to complete the 27-yard pass.
Dallas would go on to smash the Vikings 40-3.
Prescott’s 27-yard completion to Lamb ranked second with a completion probability of 7.4%.
1. Mac Jones 25-Yard Pass To DeVante Parker (7.4% Probability)
Mac Jones dropped back and threw a 25-yard pass along the sideline to DeVanta Parker, who had a defender on him but was able to catch the pass with two feet inbounds and possession to complete the 25-yard pass.
New England would go on to lose to the Ravens 37-26.
Jones’ 25-yard completion to Parker ranked first with a completion probability of 7.4%.
Courtesy of Max Barlow
Data Analyst
Finixio.com