All four of the Rockingham County teams are currently in playoff position. However, with four weeks left to play, each team needs to squeeze out every win that they can get both to secure a playoff spot and to put themselves in the best position they can be in when they head into the postseason. This week, Reidsville and Morehead, the two teams highest in the conference standings, will compete for Mid-State Conference bragging rights. Also, McMichael will try to get their first win since early September when they play the 5-1 Carver Yellowjackets. Finally, the Rockingham County Cougars will try to rebound from last week’s shutout loss to Reidsville when they take on Bartlett Yancey.
And for the weekly reminder, the top 48 teams in each classification advance to the postseason. The top 48 teams are decided by RPI, a formula calculated by (0.4 x the team’s win percentage) + (0.4 x the opponents’ combined win percentage) + (0.2 x the opponents’ opponents’ combined win percentage).
The McMichael Fighting Phoenix will get set to take on Carver this week after a second devastating loss to the Morehead Panthers in two years. After their 13-12, down to the wire loss to the Panthers, their conference record dropped to 0-2 and their overall record to 2-4. Carver will be a tough test for McMichael. The Yellow Jackets are 5-1 so far, but Carver is not battle-tested by any stretch of the imagination. Carver’s opponent’s win percentage is under twenty-seven percent, the worst OWP in the 4A. You cannot necessarily hold this against Carver, as they have taken care of business against these lesser opponents. Aside from the Reidsville game and six points given up to Parkland, Carver has not allowed any points.
McMichael is ranked 44th in the 3A RPI. But if you’re a McMichael fan and alarms are going off in your head because the Phoenix are on the playoff bubble, you can relax. If the season ended today, but their remaining opponent’s win percentage was factored in, the OWP would jump ten points. Their win-loss record may take a hit, but if they can defeat Bartlett Yancey, and their opponents, past and remaining, can impress in the final weeks, McMichael will likely punch their ticket to the round of 48.
The Morehead Panthers, after starting 0-5, have scored back-to-back wins against conference rivals. Now at 2-5 overall and 2-1 in the conference, they go into this game against Reidsville as the number two team in the Mid-State 3A/4A/5A. It has been a very long time since any county teams have defeated the Rams, but that is why you build that cushion when you face Bartlett Yancey and McMichael: you can afford a potential loss at the hands of the twenty-three time state champions.
The Panthers made it into the playoffs as a two-win team last year, and their final stretch this year makes it a possibility. They are currently ranked 41st in the 4A. With this game, a bye week, a Rockingham County game, and a Walkertown matchup on Halloween to close things out, their OWP will likely improve. Stealing one of the final three games wouldn’t hurt, either.
The aforementioned Reidsville Rams have already faced the toughest of their schedule, and now their final weeks consist of the upcoming Morehead game, a matchup against BY and McMichael, the two teams Morehead beat, and a bye week sandwiched between those final two games.
Reidsville is 5-2 overall and 3-0 in the conference after that brutal opening slate, and it has paid dividends, as they are ranked second only to Brevard in the 4A. The Morehead, BY, and McMichael games will drastically drop their OWP, but their win percentage could improve over eight percent.
The Rockingham County Cougars find themselves at 2-4 overall fresh off of a 42-0 loss to Reidsville. They have a chance to take that off their mind when they play Bartlett Yancey, a 1-5 team that has been spiraling ever since having a halftime lead in week two.
Rockingham County is now at 33rd in the 5A RPI, and they will round out their schedule by facing McMichael and Carver. Their last week will be a bye week. These are three winnable games left for the Cougars, and they are in the mix for a first round home game. The unfortunate thing about the final week bye week is that it may halt any momentum that was achieved by that hypothetical three-game winning streak, but the confidence that comes from a winning record would still be beneficial for them in the postseason.
While the Mid-State Conference standings do not determine the playoff picture, they do determine who hangs a banner. Worth noting is that whoever finishes the season with the highest winning percentage is crowned conference champion, and there is no Mid-State conference championship game. There are no tiebreakers, either, such as head-to-head or non-conference win percentage; if there is a tie, the teams are simply declared co-champions.
1. Reidsville – 3-0 conference (5-2 overall, 2nd in the 4A RPI)
2. Morehead – 2-1 conference (2-5 overall, 41st in the 4A RPI)
T3. Carver – 1-1 conference (5-1 overall, 18th in the 4A RPI)
T3. Rockingham County – 1-1 conference (2-4 overall, 33rd in the 5A RPI)
T3. Walkertown – 1-1 conference (5-1 overall, 15th in the 3A RPI)
T6. Bartlett Yancey – 0-2 conference (1-5 overall, 52nd in the 3A RPI)
T6. McMichael – 0-2 conference (2-4 overall, 44th in the 3A RPI)
Tomorrow night under the lights, Morehead–Reidsville, McMichael–Carver, and Rockingham County–Bartlett Yancey will be on the slate for the Mid-State Conference, while Walkertown takes a bye week. Just twenty-two days from now, the final games will have been played and North Carolina high schools will be finding out whether they made the grade for the postseason or not.