Lincoln Riley Linked to Join Big 12 Program as Head Coach If USC Triggers His $70M Buyout
from Essentially College Football
It now looks like USC head coach Lincoln Riley is not interested in winning. At least, that’s the sentiment amongst people, and they are not hiding it. Take USA Today‘s Paul Myerberg, for instance.
“If you don’t want to win a national championship, you don’t care, then hire Lincoln Riley,” Myerberg said on the College Football Unfiltered podcast. “If Baylor doesn’t care if they win a national championship, Baylor’s cool going 11-2 and getting their absolute snot knocked out of them by an SEC team in the first round of the playoff. That’s a great season. So yeah, hire Lincoln Riley, because that’s probably what you’re going to get. That’s the best that you’re going to get.”
For Riley, it would represent a return to the conference where he established himself as one of college football’s top offensive minds. But there is a reason behind this assessment. It came after another disappointing USC performance.
The Trojans fell 41-27 to Oregon, allowing the Ducks to score on seven of nine possessions as Riley once again failed to secure the kind of win that could change the conversation surrounding his tenure. Now, the loss has intensified questions about whether USC and Riley are approaching an eventual split.
After all, Riley is now in his fifth season with the Trojans, and despite his reputation as an offensive coach, USC has continued to struggle when facing elite opposition.
That’s why fellow podcaster Matt Hayes believes Baylor could provide an obvious escape route if USC ultimately decides to pay the massive buyout.
“If I’m Riley, I’m not walking away from a $70 million buyout,” Hayes said. “If USC wants him gone, then pay up. If I’m Riley, I say, ‘If you want to fire me, that’s fine. I’ll take the buyout.’ Then, I’d go to Baylor. Riley would solve a problem for Baylor, and it would get Riley back to the Big 12.”
There is a natural connection between Riley and Baylor. It is his connection to Texas, having played quarterback at Texas Tech under Mike Leach, and eventually becoming the head coach at Oklahoma, where he established himself as an offensive powerhouse before the USC job.
Baylor could also become a realistic option if current Baylor head coach Dave Aranda’s tenure reaches its conclusion. Aranda entered the season under pressure, although the Bears opened the year 3-1 and still have opportunities to change the narrative during the second half of the schedule.
However, the situation can be more complicated as Myerberg offered an intentionally exaggerated yet humorous instance of what Riley could do with a massive buyout.
“Lincoln could take $70 million and, like, fire it to their NIL for players,” Myerberg joked. “Lincoln might buy a small island, like a small country, and just move there, and he can play the locals and win 85-0 every single time.”
The humor underlined the unusual nature of Riley’s situation because his buyout is so large that a potential coaching change would require USC to make an enormous financial commitment, and Riley would potentially leave with significant compensation.
At Baylor, however, Riley would also return to a conference and recruiting landscape that he already knows. His history in the Big 12, Texas roots, and offensive reputation could make the fit intriguing if the Bears eventually need a new coach.
But the speculation remains just that. Riley has not been fired, Baylor has not announced a coaching change, and there is no indication that a move is imminent. The immediate pressure on Riley, though, at USC is very real, and the Trojans still have a season to play.
No team wants to lose, though!
Paul Myerberg is right with his hypothetical perspective, but it is hypothetical at best. Because what team wants to lose? None!
Sadly, the problems might follow Riley even with a job change. In fact, it has already happened. Take a look at his Oklahoma days.
Big games witnessed the defense struggle in Oklahoma, and that’s true at USC. He even swapped defensive coordinators, but nothing got better. So, despite several defensive failures in the past few years, he hasn’t really figured out what’s missing defensively.
And if history tells us something, it is that similar issues might follow him at a different place.