Alright, I’ve been getting called out for not making picks. I’ve been keeping up with the bad picks and spotty record keeping of Paulie, who will forevermore be known as Dr. Fade – fade being the gambling term for picking the opposite of someone else precisely because they are that bad at picking games. Enough is enough. It’s time to beat the man.
Let’s me clue you in on some things up front. First, in order to beat the man, you have to learn to pass on games. Lots of games. Especially big TV games. The man is all over these games and the numbers are tough to beat. The best value is in games that fly under the man’s radar.
That also means we’re not really betting NFL at all. There are no secrets. The man knows at least as much as we do and most of the time he knows more. If you need the action, fine. But you can’t win betting NFL games long term. The numbers are just too tight. The best value in the NFL are home and double digit dogs. Both of these hounds are pretty rare, but these are spots you can make some money in.
We are also not going to have a big card. Three to five games is about right. We need to hit at 54% to beat the juice. That’s not as easy as it sounds. I’ve had weekends where the man just hands me my behind on a platter. I’ve also had some good weekends too. I didn’t start beating sports betting until I developed the discipline to wait for a game I just loved and hammered it. It’s not exciting, but it’s worth it when you cash out big.
Let’s get to the card. I am noting in parenthesis where I got the number from. These are the numbers that were current at the time I’m writing this, not openers.
Texas A&M +3 over Kansas (CRIS): Straight value play here. The Aggies are tough at home and Kansas has been playing over their head. This game is in College Station and we love home dogs.
Purdue -13 over Northwestern (CRIS): I know it’s a lot of chalk, but Northwestern is simply outclassed here. The line opened at -14 which would normally be a concern, but the move probably reflects a desire for action and getting off of a key number as much as it does the smart money’s lack of faith in the Boilermakers.
Tulane -1.5 over Memphis (CRIS): Memphis opened as a 1-point road fave and are now a 1.5 point dog. The money that has to pour in to make that happen is significant. We’re going to follow the steam and take Tulane.
To make the math easy, we’re going to be betting $11 a game. All the games have the standard juice, so we we’ll win $10 for each $11 we bet.
For you homers who like betting your favorite teams, avoid the trap between Wake and UNC. The game opened at Wake -7 and is now down to Wake -5.5. Not sure why the money is coming in on the Heels but this game tends to be screwy. There will be plenty of Smurf blue in the stands to negate Wake’s home-field advantage, but it’s Wake or no-play (with me advocating the latter).
Another tasty trap is South Carolina and Tennessee. The game opened at Tennessee -3 and has held firm, but a couple of books (notably WSEX) has offered it at even money. Don’t let an attractive price on a game make you bet it if you weren’t going to before. This is a no-play.
Good luck this weekend and remember, when you gamble for fun, you’ve already won!